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Poker Hands - What to Pump and What to Dump

Texas Hold ‘Em, believe it or not, is all about the two poker cards that start your hand. Without a good hand, dealt to you from the start, you are relying on either luck on the river or a superior skill with bluffing. Neither is reliable, and neither consistently leads to wins as much as knowing the value of your starting hand. Experienced players will make the same decisions regarding starting hands nearly ninety percent of the time—and so should you if you expect to win.

Having said this, keep in mind that just because a starting hand has a high probability of a favorable flop does not mean it will be the hand that wins. Many variable come into play when choosing how to proceed in a game of Hold ‘Em and starting hands are just one variable—a very important variable, but simply the first in a series.

There are only 169 different possibilities for a starting hand in Texas Hold ‘Em. There are also only ten different starting positions (your place at the table). By memorizing the different possibilities for each, and the situation involved (around 400 possibilities) you should be ready to dominate at Hold ‘Em! Right? Wrong! There is no starting hand that will consistently lead you to win, no matter what. There are just too many variables, including the human elements: player numbers, emotional volatility, playing styles, and strange hands that may have happened immediately prior. And, of course, bad beats.

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The most important element in determining whether to keep your hand or fold has nothing to do with the cards. Player position, where you are in relation to the button, has the largest influence over whether or not you should keep a hand. If you are in an early position, you should be incredibly conservative in the hands you keep—if you are in a later position, you can play a little looser. Because the late players have the benefit of seeing the action around the poker table they can afford to keep worse hands longer.

Next to that, the other players are your next most important key in determining which hands to keep. If you are playing at a loose table, it doesn’t hurt you much to pump weak hands—as long as you know other players are playing loose, you can play loose too. After all, if the other players are pushing high cards to Fifth Street, so can you. This is an element you have to feel during play, and should not determine your early game play. For this reason, it’s often a good idea to join the table at a position far from the button and wait to enter play until you are in the Big Blind position rather than matching the Big Blind to join immediately.

The next major factor in deciding which hands to keep is hand probability—and that you determine by the number of players at the table. There are only 52 cards in a deck. When few people sit at the table, few cards enter play. This means that the odds of hands requiring a large number of cards for completion will not outweigh the odds for hands requiring only a few. When few people sit at a table, a pair can often win. When many people sit at the table, a straight will more often win. Does this mean that a pair cannot win at a large table? No. But it does mean that in the final analysis, after you have already determined whether keeping that pair would jive with the player styles involved, in your table position and with the history of other hands to inform your choice, maybe—just maybe, because there are 18 other cards in play you should fold. But, then again, maybe you shouldn't. It depends on the situation—especially if you happen to hold pocket Aces.